California will need an additional 10,500 primary care providers by 2030 to meet projected demand.1
Although insurance reduces barriers to care, it does not ensure that everyone receives appropriate or high-quality care at the right time.2 An estimated 7 million Californians live in health professional shortage areas without adequate access to primary, dental, or mental healthcare providers to serve the population.3 The shortage of health professionals impacts access to care, causing significant delays in obtaining health services, and negatively impacting health outcomes.2 Access to comprehensive and quality healthcare services is important for physical, social, mental health, and overall quality of life.4 Access to care also promotes preventative measures, helps manage disease, and reduces avoidable disability and premature death.4 In broad terms, the number of providers is considered adequate if there are 2,000 people for every 1 provider.5 Poverty and transportation barriers are additional factors that can limit access to primary care.6
This indicator tracks a ratio of population size relative to the number of primary care physicians in California. Changes in the ratio over time may reflect changes in population size, the number of primary care physicians, or both. There may be areas within counties that have inadequate primary care access, even in counties with fewer than 2,000 people per primary care physician. To show areas known to have limited primary care access within counties, the map for this indicator includes Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSAs).
Access to Primary Care Providers
In 2022 (baseline year), there were 1,199 people for each primary care physician in California. The most recent ratio available is 1,199:1 (2022). The target is to be determined (TBD) for this indicator.
Baseline
1,199:1
Target
TBD
Indicator Highlights
California faces a statewide shortfall of primary care providers:
- Forecasts estimate California will need 10,500 additional primary care providers by 2030 to meet demand.1
- In 2030, California is projected to have 78,000 to 103,000 primary care clinicians, with nurse practitioners (NPs) and physician assistants (PAs) composing nearly half of the total.4
In addition to shortages of primary care physicians, California also faces shortages for mental health and dental providers:
- Behavioral health workforce projections indicate that by 2033 California will have 53% fewer psychiatrists than needed, with shortages projected in all counties.7
- To meet needs of the State’s aging population California will need 600,000 more home care workers by 2029.4
- In California, there are 532 areas identified as dental care provider shortage areas based on geographic area, population group, or facility type.8
Innovative healthcare workforce development approaches identified by the California Future Health Workforce Commission include:
- Creating more primary care and mental health residency slots
- Increasing the use of nurse practitioners
- Boosting scholarships for low-income students who agree to work in underserved area
- Expanding the supply and training of home care workers9
Data Snapshot
Medi-Cal members face additional barriers to care because many providers who accept private insurance do not accept Medi-Cal.3
California’s healthcare workforce is not evenly distributed across the state.
Regions that experience significant shortage include the San Joaquin Valley, Inland Empire, and the rural North.1
There is notable variation in the number of primary care physicians relative to the population across counties. For example, in 2022 Trinity County had a population to primary care physician ratio of 7,891:1, compared to 679:1 in Marin County.
Latino, Black, and American Indian and Alaska Native populations make up the majority of residents living in health professional shortage areas.3
Ratio of Population to Primary Care Physicians, Over Time
Ratio of Population to Primary Care Physicians, by County
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